How Wrong Could I Have Been? Very.

November 10th, 2012 § 0 comments

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The proverbial Martian would look at this map and assume we’re a center right nation.

So I couldn’t have been more wrong. I was sure that Romney would win, and would win by a good margin – 52% of the vote.

My assumptions were that McCain voters would not only all come out to vote, but vote 98% for Romney. And, millions of independents and Hillary Clinton Democrat supporters, who had voted for Obama in 2008, would either stay home or vote for Romney. Wrong again Tom.

My false assumption was only buttressed by one of my favorite pundits, Michael Barone. On November 2nd he wrote: Romney Beats Obama, Handily. I had been predicting a strong Romney win after Obama said at a July 13th speech in Roanoke “You Didn’t Build That.” I foolishly believed that as a center right country, that too many people would consider that the final straw. Wrong again. We are a center right country no longer. There now appear to be more Takes than Makers. Envy and a sense of entitlement has overtaken a majority of Americans.

People on the Left didn’t hate Romney for what he did wrong. They hate him for what he did right.

I haven’t analyzed the results yet, but I’m amazed that McCain actually got more votes than Mitt Romney.

From a Paul Kengor post on the American Spectator: McCain Beats Romney! Apparently Romney got 2 million fewer votes than McCain (58 million vs. 60 million). Obama got almost 9 million fewer than 2008!

In other words, this was a self-inflicted wound by Republicans, and a fatal one. It explains why the likes of Dick Morris, Michael Barone, George Will, Newt Gingrich, and myself were completely wrong in predicting a Romney landslide. We were certain that pollsters were oversampling Democrats in polls that had Romney-Obama dead even or Romney up by one or two points. The pro-Republican, pro-Romney, and anti-Obama enthusiasm we were seeing was extremely intense. It was inconceivable to us that it could be overcome by a higher Democrat turnout. We were expecting turnout akin to 2010, which favored Republicans big-time.

 

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